I asked ChatGPT to predict the scores to all the NFL games!
🏆 Quick Look Back: How Did We Do Last Year?
Before we start all over again…
2025–26 Final Record Through Championship Round
- Total correct: 164
- Total picks: 262
- Overall accuracy: 62.6%
- Playoff record through Championship Round: 10–2
- Playoff accuracy: 83.3%
The playoffs were definitely where we found our stride: 5–1 Wild Card, 3–1 Divisional, 2–0 Championship.
Now everything resets to 0–0. 😈
🔍 Week 1 Preview — What We’re Watching
Injury / Roster Notes & Key Watch
Patriots @ Seahawks
- Seattle enters its title defense at home after going 14–3 last season.
- New England also went 14–3 and added A.J. Brown, giving Drake Maye the true WR1 the Patriots were missing in last year’s Super Bowl. (NFL)
- New England will be without RB TreVeyon Henderson and backup C Ben Brown.
- Seattle has S Ty Okada OUT, with S Nick Emmanwori and WR Tory Horton questionable. (NFL)
49ers @ Rams — Australia
- This one is fascinating. The Rams added Myles Garrett, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson to an already-loaded roster.
- But Aaron Donald will NOT play, while Garrett and Watson are currently questionable.
- San Francisco has a significant injury watch of its own: Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Dre Greenlaw and several others are questionable. (ESPN)
- The Rams/49ers game is the NFL’s first regular-season game in Australia. (NFL)
Bills @ Texans
- Buffalo’s receiving corps has some uncertainty: Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir are questionable, although there is optimism both could play.
- Houston has Jadeveon Clowney questionable, but current reporting has him expected to be ready. (ESPN)
Bears @ Panthers
- Chicago has some significant defensive concerns, with Kyler Gordon OUT.
- Rome Odunze is questionable, but Chicago remains optimistic he’ll play. (ESPN)
Bengals @ Buccaneers
- Cincinnati’s biggest watch is obvious: Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are both questionable, although Chase was participating in practice Monday. (ESPN)
Saints @ Lions
- Detroit is missing two huge pieces of its secondary: Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are both out.
- Sam LaPorta is questionable, while New Orleans has several defensive players listed as questionable and Alvin Kamara remains a major watch. (ESPN)
Packers @ Vikings
- Green Bay will be without Josh Jacobs for the opener.
- Minnesota’s injury list is considerably lighter, although there are some questions on the defensive side. (ESPN)
Cowboys @ Giants
- Dallas loses LG Tyler Smith, who is undergoing thumb surgery and is expected to miss 4–6 weeks.
- The Giants have Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr. listed as questionable, although Nabers has been progressing. (ESPN)
Broncos @ Chiefs
- This is the Monday night question mark: Patrick Mahomes is officially questionable, but Andy Reid said Tuesday that Mahomes has a “pretty good chance” to start.
- Kansas City also has questions along the offensive line and secondary. (ESPN)
📈 Early-Season Trends
Since we don’t have Week 0/Week 1 results yet, I’m treating this differently from our normal Hot / Cold / Steady section.
🔥 Teams I’m Most Comfortable With Entering Week 1
Philadelphia, Baltimore, Detroit, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City
👀 Teams With Major Week 1 Questions
Seattle: defending champion, but RB situation changed significantly.
San Francisco: tremendous talent, but several defensive stars are questionable.
Cincinnati: Chase/Higgins health could dramatically change the offense.
Kansas City: everything depends on Mahomes’ knee and the offensive line.
Chicago: talented offense, but a surprisingly long injury list already.
🆕 Biggest New-Season Wild Cards
- A.J. Brown’s Patriots debut
- Myles Garrett’s Rams debut
- New York’s Jaxson Dart era
- Geno Smith’s first season-opening start for Tennessee
- Jeremiyah Love’s Cardinals debut
- The first NFL regular-season game in Australia
🗓️ Week 1 Schedule & Picks
Lines are approximate current market lines and can move before kickoff. Current Week 1 lines have Seattle around -3, Rams around -3.5, Philadelphia around -5.5, Dallas around -2.5 and Kansas City around -3. (VegasInsider)
Wednesday, September 9
| Matchup | Line (approx.) | Pick | Predicted Score | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England at Seattle — 7:20 PM CT | SEA –3 | Seattle | 24–20 | Super Bowl rematch in Seattle. The Patriots are better offensively with A.J. Brown, but the 12s and Seattle’s continuity give the champs the opening-night edge. |
🎯 Wednesday Pick: Seattle Seahawks
I’m resisting the temptation to overreact to the Super Bowl rematch. Seattle has the home field, the same QB, the same offensive identity and the emotional advantage of opening its title defense in front of its own fans.
Thursday, September 10
🇦🇺 49ers vs. Rams — 7:35 PM CT
Location: Melbourne Cricket Ground, Australia
| Matchup | Line (approx.) | Pick | Predicted Score | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco vs. L.A. Rams — 7:35 PM CT | LAR –3.5 | Rams | 27–23 | The Rams’ upgraded defense is the difference. Australia travel adds weirdness, but Stafford, Nacua and Adams should eventually exploit SF’s injury questions. |
🎯 Thursday Pick: Los Angeles Rams
This is probably my most interesting pick of the week.
San Francisco could absolutely win if Bosa, Kittle and Greenlaw are healthy enough to make an impact. But the Rams’ combination of Stafford + Puka + Davante + Kyren + Garrett is ridiculous on paper, and McVay has already won four of the last five against Shanahan. (NFL)
Sunday, September 13
Early Games — 12:00 PM CT
| Matchup | Line (approx.) | Pick | Predicted Score | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta at Pittsburgh | PIT –3.5 | Pittsburgh | 23–17 | Pittsburgh’s defense and home field should make life difficult for Atlanta. |
| Baltimore at Indianapolis | BAL –3.5 | Baltimore | 31–24 | Baltimore’s physicality and Lamar Jackson give the Ravens too many ways to win. |
| Buffalo at Houston | BUF –1.5 | Buffalo | 24–20 | Houston’s defense will make this uncomfortable, but Josh Allen gets enough explosive plays late. |
| Chicago at Carolina | CHI –2.5 | Chicago | 27–23 | Caleb Williams and Chicago’s offensive upside outweigh the Bears’ defensive injuries. |
| Cleveland at Jacksonville | JAX –8.5 | Jacksonville | 24–13 | Big home-field advantage and a major talent gap. Jacksonville controls the game without needing to go crazy offensively. |
| Tampa Bay at Cincinnati | CIN –3.5 | Cincinnati | 30–24 | Assuming Chase is good to go, Cincinnati has too much firepower for Tampa to contain for four quarters. |
| New Orleans at Detroit | DET –6.5 | Detroit | 31–20 | Detroit’s offense should dictate the game, even with the secondary taking a hit. |
| N.Y. Jets at Tennessee | TEN –1.5 | Tennessee | 20–17 | Ugly one. Geno Smith at home and the Titans’ defense narrowly win a low-scoring battle. |
🎯 Early-Slate Picks
Steelers • Ravens • Bills • Bears • Jaguars • Bengals • Lions • Titans
Sunday Afternoon — 3:25 PM CT
| Matchup | Line (approx.) | Pick | Predicted Score | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona at L.A. Chargers | LAC –10.5 | Chargers | 30–17 | Huge talent gap. Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense should eventually pull away. |
| Green Bay at Minnesota | MIN –1.5 | Minnesota | 24–20 | Josh Jacobs being unavailable hurts Green Bay; Minnesota’s home-field advantage swings a close one. |
| Miami at Las Vegas | LV –3.5 | Las Vegas | 23–20 | The Raiders’ defense and home field win a game that could get ugly. Ashton Jeanty’s ankle is the wild card. |
| Washington at Philadelphia | PHI –5.5 | Philadelphia | 27–20 | Washington can make this interesting, but Philadelphia’s roster is deeper and more established. |
🎯 Afternoon Picks
Chargers • Vikings • Raiders • Eagles
Sunday Night Football — 7:20 PM CT
| Matchup | Line (approx.) | Pick | Predicted Score | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas at N.Y. Giants | DAL –2.5 | Dallas | 30–27 | Giants have enough offensive talent to make this uncomfortable, but Dak and Dallas’ receiving corps get the final answer. |
🎯 Sunday Night Pick: Dallas Cowboys
This is one where I wouldn’t be shocked at all if we get a Giants upset. Malik Nabers potentially returning makes the Giants considerably more dangerous, but Dallas has the more trustworthy offense entering Week 1. Dallas is also only a 2.5-point favorite, so the market isn’t expecting a runaway. (CBS Sports)
Monday, September 14
Monday Night Football — 7:15 PM CT
| Matchup | Line (approx.) | Pick | Predicted Score | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver at Kansas City | KC –3 | Kansas City | 24–20 | Mahomes’ knee is the entire story. If he’s healthy enough to start, Arrowhead and the Chiefs’ experience give KC the edge. |
🎯 Monday Night Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
This one has a giant asterisk attached to it.
Mahomes is currently questionable, but Andy Reid’s latest update is encouraging enough that I’m making the pick assuming he starts. If something changes between now and Monday, this is the pick most likely to flip. (ESPN)
🏈 FINAL WEEK 1 PICKS
| Game | Pick |
|---|---|
| Patriots @ Seahawks | Seattle |
| 49ers @ Rams | Rams |
| Falcons @ Steelers | Steelers |
| Ravens @ Colts | Ravens |
| Bills @ Texans | Bills |
| Bears @ Panthers | Bears |
| Browns @ Jaguars | Jaguars |
| Buccaneers @ Bengals | Bengals |
| Saints @ Lions | Lions |
| Jets @ Titans | Titans |
| Cardinals @ Chargers | Chargers |
| Packers @ Vikings | Vikings |
| Dolphins @ Raiders | Raiders |
| Commanders @ Eagles | Eagles |
| Cowboys @ Giants | Cowboys |
| Broncos @ Chiefs | Chiefs |
📊 Week 1 Prediction
16 games. 16 picks.
And our Monday Night tiebreaker prediction: 44 total points
Chiefs 24, Broncos 20
🔥 My Five Picks I’m Most Confident In
If I had to identify the five I’m least worried about:
- Chargers over Cardinals
- Jaguars over Browns
- Lions over Saints
- Ravens over Colts
- Eagles over Commanders
And the five I’m most nervous about…
- Patriots @ Seahawks — defending champ, but New England is significantly better than it was in the Super Bowl.
- 49ers @ Rams — injuries + Australia + division rivalry = chaos.
- Bills @ Texans — Houston’s defense could completely disrupt this.
- Bears @ Panthers — close line and plenty of uncertainty.
- Broncos @ Chiefs — Mahomes’ knee.
🏆 And We’re Back!
Last year we started with zero games played, zero evidence and a whole lot of confidence.
Then somehow we finished the playoff portion at 10–2.
Now we’ve got a bizarre Wednesday kickoff, an Australia game, 16 games across four days, a bunch of new coaches, a bunch of new faces and 16 fresh opportunities to be spectacularly wrong.
Week 1 is officially locked. 🏈
NFL Week 1 schedule · NFL Week 1 injury report · ESPN NFL injuries (NFL)
| Matchup | Line | Pick | Score | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans @ Steelers (7:15 PM CST) | PIT –3 | Steelers | 21 – 17 | PIT defense tightens late; HOU dangerous but young. |
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