I asked ChatGPT to predict the scores to all the NFL games!
🏈 2026 NFL Week 4 Picks
Week 3 Recap
Here is how our Week 3 picks actually turned out:
| Game | Our Pick | Actual Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons @ Packers | Packers 27–20 | Falcons 35–14 | ❌ |
| Bengals @ Steelers | Bengals 27–20 | Steelers 30–27 | ❌ |
| Chargers @ Bills | Bills 30–20 | Bills 24–16 | ✅ |
| Patriots @ Jaguars | Jaguars 24–20 | Jaguars 35–6 | ✅ |
| Jets @ Lions | Lions 28–20 | Lions 31–24 | ✅ |
| Panthers @ Browns | Panthers 24–20 | Browns 21–18 | ❌ |
| Texans @ Colts | Texans 24–20 | Colts 19–17 | ❌ |
| Titans @ Giants | Titans 23–20 | Giants 12–7 | ❌ |
| Seahawks @ Commanders | Seahawks 27–17 | Commanders 33–31 | ❌ |
| Chiefs @ Dolphins | Chiefs 34–17 | Chiefs 24–10 | ✅ |
| Cardinals @ 49ers | 49ers 24–17 | 49ers 36–30 | ✅ |
| Vikings @ Buccaneers | Vikings 27–20 | Vikings 23–16 | ✅ |
| Raiders @ Saints | Raiders 27–23 | Raiders 35–27 | ✅ |
| Ravens @ Cowboys | Ravens 31–27 | Ravens 34–31 | ✅ |
| Rams @ Broncos | Rams 27–23 | Broncos 30–26 | ❌ |
| Eagles @ Bears | Eagles 27–17 | Bears 27–7 | ❌ |
Week 3: 8–8
That brings us to:
- Week 1: 12–4
- Week 2: 10–6
- Week 3: 8–8
- 2026 season: 30–18 — 62.5%
Our previous-season finish was 164–98 — 62.6%.
So combined across the two seasons:
194–116 — 62.6%
We’ve basically landed right around the same percentage after three weeks of the new season.
🚨 The Week 4 News That Actually Matters
This is where this week gets interesting.
🟢 Green Bay is trying to fix that offensive line
Green Bay signed veteran guard Laken Tomlinson to the 53-man roster Monday and added Mekhi Becton to the practice squad. Tomlinson has 162 career starts, while Becton has started at both guard and tackle. The Packers also placed Zach Bako-Bewele on IR. Packers
Then on Wednesday came another move: Kevin Zeitler is signing a one-year deal with Green Bay. The 36-year-old veteran started all 16 games for Tennessee last season and was a Pro Bowler with Baltimore in 2023. NFL
That’s a lot of attention being directed toward the problem after Atlanta embarrassed Green Bay’s offense.
There’s still a major loss, though: Jayden Reed will miss the rest of the season after neck surgery. NFL
So for Packers-Bucs, I’m factoring in both things: Green Bay is actively trying to repair the line, but the receiving corps has taken a major hit.
🔵 Jaxson Dart is done for the regular season — and the Giants traded for J.J. McCarthy
This one changed our Giants outlook considerably.
Dart suffered the knee injury against the Rams and will miss the remainder of the 2026 regular season. Giants
The Giants then acquired J.J. McCarthy from Minnesota for a 2027 fifth-round pick. Giants
But I don’t want to make the mistake of automatically putting McCarthy into the starting lineup this week. He has just arrived and is learning the offense. John Harbaugh said the Giants had been looking for another quarterback since Dart was injured. Giants
And there’s another huge Giants loss: Brian Burns suffered a torn ACL and is out for the season. NFL
Oh, and New York released Odell Beckham Jr. after three games and only 19 snaps. Giants
So the Giants are 2–1, but they’re a very different 2–1 team than the one we watched open the season.
🐻 The Bears have a quarterback decision to make
Caleb Williams remains week-to-week with his hamstring injury. He was ruled out for the Eagles game and missed it. Chicago Bears
And then Case Keenum went out and had an excellent Monday night:
24/34, 247 yards, 2 TDs, 110.8 rating, leading Chicago to a 27–7 win over Philadelphia. Chicago Bears
Tyson Bagent has now cleared concussion protocol, but as of Wednesday, Ben Johnson still had not named the starter for the Jets game. Chicago Bears
That’s a fascinating situation to watch.
🟢 Tampa Bay is starting a rookie quarterback
Baker Mayfield’s thumb injury is a big deal.
He dislocated his throwing-hand thumb against Minnesota and is expected to miss at least three weeks. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels is scheduled to make his first career start against Green Bay. NFL
Tampa also put WR Jalen McMillan on IR this week. NFL
That’s a pretty significant change from the team we evaluated last week.
🟡 Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson situation
Jefferson left the Tampa game with an ankle injury. Minnesota says he avoided a long-term injury, but he did not practice Wednesday and is considered day-to-day. Minnesota Vikings
Meanwhile, Minnesota is still 3–0 and its defense has been a huge reason why.
🟠 Miami lost De’Von Achane for the season
Achane tore his ACL against Kansas City and will miss the remainder of 2026. NFL
That’s particularly important with Miami heading into Minnesota against a Vikings defense that has been extremely difficult to move the ball against.
🟣 Puka Nacua is expected back
This is probably the biggest positive injury development of the week for the Rams.
Sean McVay said Wednesday that Puka Nacua is expected to play against Philadelphia after missing the last two games with his hip/groin injury. NFL
That’s a big deal because Matthew Stafford has been throwing a lot to Davante Adams in Nacua’s absence.
🇺🇸 One more interesting one: Jayden Daniels
Daniels actually returned to practice Wednesday in London while wearing a protective brace on his injured elbow.
His status for Sunday is still undecided. Washington plans to evaluate him Thursday and Friday before making the call. NFL Fantasy
That makes Colts-Commanders considerably more interesting than it looked a few days ago.
📈 Week 4 Lines
These are approximate lines as of September 30, using the current betting market rather than the lines from last week. FOX Sports
| Game | Current Line |
|---|---|
| Steelers @ Browns | Steelers -2.5 |
| Colts @ Commanders | Colts -3.5 |
| Cowboys @ Texans | Texans -2.5 |
| Jets @ Bears | Bears -3.5 |
| Patriots @ Bills | Bills -6.5 |
| Jaguars @ Bengals | Bengals -2.5 |
| Cardinals @ Giants | Cardinals -1.5 |
| Titans @ Ravens | Ravens -11.5 |
| Rams @ Eagles | Rams -3 |
| Packers @ Buccaneers | Packers -3.5 |
| Dolphins @ Vikings | Vikings -10.5 |
| Chiefs @ Raiders | Chiefs -4.5 |
| Broncos @ 49ers | 49ers -2.5 |
| Chargers @ Seahawks | Seahawks -7 |
| Lions @ Panthers | Lions -3.5 |
| Falcons @ Saints | Saints -2.5 |
🏈 OUR WEEK 4 PICKS
Thursday Night
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Pick: Steelers 23, Browns 20
This is a really interesting AFC North game. Pittsburgh finally got its offense moving against Cincinnati, with Aaron Rodgers leading a 30-point performance. Cleveland’s defense, however, has played well over the past two weeks.
The Steelers are missing Joey Porter Jr., while Jalen Ramsey is trying to play through a broken wrist. Cleveland will also be without both Jenkins players on the interior offensive line. Pittsburgh Steelers
I’ll take Pittsburgh, but this feels like a field-goal game.
Sunday Morning — London 🇬🇧
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
Pick: Colts 24, Commanders 21
This one changed while we were writing.
The Colts just beat Houston despite some ugly offensive moments, while Washington is coming off the stunning Seattle win. And now Jayden Daniels is practicing in London.
If Daniels plays, I think this gets considerably tougher for Indianapolis. If Mariota starts again, I lean Colts.
For now I’m sticking with Indianapolis, but this is one I’ll watch closely Friday.
Noon Games
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans
Pick: Cowboys 27, Texans 20
Houston is 0–3 and has scored 6, 6 and 17 points in its three games. The Texans’ offense simply hasn’t been able to sustain drives.
Dallas is coming off the heartbreaking loss to Baltimore, but Dak Prescott continues to play well and the Cowboys’ defense finally showed some signs of life in Rio.
Dallas gets back on track.
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears
Pick: Bears 24, Jets 20
Here’s another game where the quarterback situation matters.
Caleb Williams is still dealing with the hamstring. Tyson Bagent is available again, and Case Keenum just had a terrific performance. Ben Johnson hasn’t named his starter yet. Chicago Bears
But regardless of which quarterback plays, Chicago’s defense looked outstanding against Philadelphia.
The Jets are better than their Week 2 showing and fought Detroit all the way to the end last week.
Bears at home.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Pick: Bills 31, Patriots 17
Buffalo is 3–0.
New England just got absolutely hammered 35–6 by Jacksonville.
Drake Maye is healthy enough to practice fully despite appearing on Wednesday’s report with a shoulder issue, but the Patriots have some significant players missing practice, including Christian Barmore, Christian Gonzalez and Morgan Moses. New England Patriots
Buffalo has too much firepower at home.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Bengals 27, Jaguars 24
This is one of my tougher games.
Jacksonville looked fantastic against New England, while Cincinnati nearly pulled off the comeback against Pittsburgh before losing 30–27.
The Bengals’ injury report is something to watch: B.J. Hill, Kyle Dugger and Dalton Risner all did not participate Wednesday. Jacksonville has several players limited, including Jakobi Meyers. Cincinnati Bengals
Still, Cincinnati at home in what should be a much more competitive game than either team’s previous matchup leads us to believe.
Bengals by three.
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants
Pick: Cardinals 27, Giants 21
This is where the Dart injury really changes things.
Jameis Winston has gotten the Giants to 2–1, but now the team has lost Dart for the season, traded for McCarthy and lost Brian Burns for the year.
Arizona just scored 30 points against San Francisco.
I think the Cardinals’ offense finally takes advantage of the Giants’ changing circumstances.
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Ravens 34, Titans 17
Baltimore survived Dallas in Rio and got Zay Flowers back into the offense.
Tennessee is 0–3 and has had major offensive-line problems, with Fernando Carmona and Jackson Slater both headed for surgery. NFL
Lamar Jackson did have a limited practice Wednesday with a back issue, so that’s something we’ll keep an eye on. NFL
Assuming he’s good to go:
Ravens win comfortably.
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Pick: Rams 27, Eagles 24
This is one of my favorite games on the entire slate.
Philadelphia is coming off a shocking 27–7 loss to Chicago.
The Rams are coming off a shocking collapse against Denver.
But now the Rams are expecting Puka Nacua back, and that gives Matthew Stafford the missing piece he’s been lacking. NFL
Stafford + Puka + Davante Adams against an Eagles defense that just gave up 27 to Case Keenum?
I’m taking the Rams in a close one.
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Packers 24, Buccaneers 16
This is the game where I am specifically changing my thinking based on the news.
Green Bay got embarrassed 35–14 by Atlanta, and the offensive line was a huge part of the problem.
Then the Packers went shopping:
- Laken Tomlinson signed to the active roster
- Mekhi Becton added to the practice squad
- Zach Bako-Bewele placed on IR
- Kevin Zeitler added Wednesday on a one-year deal Packers
That’s about as direct a response as you can make.
The other side of the equation: Tampa is starting Jalon Daniels with Baker Mayfield out, and the Bucs are 0–3. NFL
Green Bay still has problems, particularly without Jayden Reed.
But I think this is a bounce-back spot for Jordan Love and the Packers.
Afternoon Games
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Vikings 27, Dolphins 13
Minnesota is 3–0.
Miami is 0–3.
The Dolphins have now lost De’Von Achane for the season, while Justin Jefferson’s ankle remains something to monitor for Minnesota. NFL
The Vikings’ defense has been the story of their season.
Vikings win another relatively low-scoring game.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
Pick: Chiefs 30, Raiders 27
This might be the game of the week.
Both teams are 3–0.
Kansas City has looked increasingly comfortable as the season has gone along, while Las Vegas has been one of the biggest surprises in the league.
The current line is Chiefs -4.5, but I don’t think this is a four-point game.
Patrick Mahomes is healthy and practiced fully Wednesday. Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs 30–27.
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers
Pick: 49ers 27, Broncos 23
San Francisco is 3–0, and Brock Purdy is playing ridiculous football right now — nine TDs and one interception through three games, with 789 passing yards. NFL
Denver just came back from a 16–0 halftime deficit to beat the Rams, but San Francisco is a different challenge.
The 49ers do have injury concerns, including Mike Evans’ ribs and Trent Williams’ neck/stinger, although Williams was expected to be good to go. San Francisco 49ers
49ers stay undefeated.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Seahawks 27, Chargers 23
I really don’t want to give up on Justin Herbert yet.
The Chargers are 0–3 despite some genuinely good stretches of football, including forcing five turnovers against Buffalo.
But now they’re going to Seattle.
The Chargers’ injury report has seven players who didn’t practice Wednesday, including Dalvin Tomlinson and Kayode Awosika, while Derwin James and Ladd McConkey were limited. Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle is coming home after that wild loss in Washington.
Seahawks get back in the win column.
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers
Pick: Lions 31, Panthers 27
This one could be sneaky entertaining.
Carolina has Bryce Young, who is leading the NFL in passing yards through three weeks, and Detroit’s defense has had trouble closing games out. NFL
But Detroit has Jahmyr Gibbs, and the Lions have scored 31 in each of their last two games.
Carolina’s defense is also dealing with some significant losses, including Jaycee Horn being placed on IR.
Lions win a higher-scoring game than the line suggests.
Monday Night Football
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Pick: Saints 27, Falcons 24
Atlanta just went into Green Bay and absolutely destroyed the Packers.
Bijan Robinson was terrific, and Michael Penix Jr. finally got his opportunity to start and delivered.
But now the Falcons go into the Superdome against a Saints team that is coming off a 35–27 loss to Las Vegas.
I expect Tyler Shough and the Saints offense to bounce back at home.
Saints 27–24.
📋 Week 4 Picks at a Glance
| Game | Line | Our Pick | Predicted Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers @ Browns | PIT -2.5 | Steelers | 23–20 |
| Colts @ Commanders | IND -3.5 | Colts | 24–21 |
| Cowboys @ Texans | HOU -2.5 | Cowboys | 27–20 |
| Jets @ Bears | CHI -3.5 | Bears | 24–20 |
| Patriots @ Bills | BUF -6.5 | Bills | 31–17 |
| Jaguars @ Bengals | CIN -2.5 | Bengals | 27–24 |
| Cardinals @ Giants | ARI -1.5 | Cardinals | 27–21 |
| Titans @ Ravens | BAL -11.5 | Ravens | 34–17 |
| Rams @ Eagles | LAR -3 | Rams | 27–24 |
| Packers @ Buccaneers | GB -3.5 | Packers | 24–16 |
| Dolphins @ Vikings | MIN -10.5 | Vikings | 27–13 |
| Chiefs @ Raiders | KC -4.5 | Chiefs | 30–27 |
| Broncos @ 49ers | SF -2.5 | 49ers | 27–23 |
| Chargers @ Seahawks | SEA -7 | Seahawks | 27–23 |
| Lions @ Panthers | DET -3.5 | Lions | 31–27 |
| Falcons @ Saints | NO -2.5 | Saints | 27–24 |
Monday Night Tiebreaker
51 total points — Saints 27, Falcons 24
👀 Games I’m Watching Closest
Packers @ Buccaneers — Green Bay has made a very obvious attempt to fix its offensive line. Tomlinson, Becton and now Zeitler is a lot of attention in one week. But Reed is gone for the year, and the Packers still have other OL injuries. Packers
Colts @ Commanders — This could look completely different depending on whether Jayden Daniels can actually play. He’s back on the field, but Washington won’t decide until later in the week. NFL Fantasy
Rams @ Eagles — Puka Nacua’s return could materially change what the Rams offense looks like. NFL
Jets @ Bears — Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum? We don’t know yet. And Keenum just threw for two touchdowns in a 20-point win. Chicago Bears
Chiefs @ Raiders — Two 3–0 teams. This is the one I’m circling in red.
🏆 The five undefeated teams
After three weeks, we’re down to:
Buffalo 3–0
Kansas City 3–0
Las Vegas 3–0
Minnesota 3–0
San Francisco 3–0
And on the other end:
Houston 0–3
Miami 0–3
Tennessee 0–3
Tampa Bay 0–3
L.A. Chargers 0–3
That’s a pretty dramatic split after only three weeks.
And our little roller coaster continues: 12–4 → 10–6 → 8–8. 😂
Let’s see if Week 4 can get us pointed back toward that 12-win pace. One week at a time! 🏈
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