OO Reader/Commenter Explores the Possibilities of the Final 53
“Surprise, surprise, surprise!” Even those unfamiliar with Jim Nabors in his role as Gomer Pyle likely recognize that phrase. Today’s column is on that topic, specifically with regard to surprise cuts.
Surprise cuts can occur for a variety of reasons. They could be for salary cap considerations, locker room issues, or due to ascendance of other players at the same position.
The most notable surprise cut in recent memory for the Packers, who was cut after GM Ted Thompson was unable to find a trade partner, was Josh Sitton, due to reported attitude issues, although the salary cap may have factored into the decision somewhat as well.
Other notable surprise cuts were guys who had strong camps and preseasons and sometimes even received a vote of confidence from QB1 – guys such as Taysom Hill and Jake Kumerow.
The goal of this column is to identify potential surprise cuts as the Tuesday cutdown to 53 approaches. Note that these players could potentially be traded rather than cut, if a trade partner can be found.
First, let’s identify what would constitute a surprise in the context of this exercise. I’m setting the parameters at players who played at least 1/3 of snaps in their primary phase of the game last season, were drafted in the first five rounds this season, were drafted in the first four rounds last season, were drafted in the first three rounds two years ago, or have been playing with the starters in camp/preseason and/or been talked up by QB1.
That brings our list of possibilities to the following: Rodgers (Aaron), Love, Jones (Aaron), Dillon, Lazard, Watkins, Cobb, Rodgers (Amari), Watson, Doubs, Winfree, Lewis, Deguara, Tonyan, Runyan, Nijman, Newman, Myers, Jenkins, Rhyan, Tom, Hanson, Amos, Savage, Stokes, Alexander, Douglas, Campbell, Barnes, Walker (Quay), Gary, Smith, Garvin, Enagbare, Clark, Wyatt, Lowry, O’Donnell, and Crosby, with Watkins, Cobb, Winfree, Hanson, and O’Donnell falling into the “camp starter” or “talked up by QB1” category.
Many of these players can be assumed to be nearly 100% safe due to draft or contractual investments that would make parting ways with them punitive to the team. However, I am going to identify my top 3 surprise cut/trade candidates below and provide the reasoning behind my choices.
- Dean Lowry. While Lowry is a better player than he gets credit for, he carries a cap hit of $8.1M this season. Cutting or trading Lowry would free up nearly $6M of cap space to help with extensions for guys such as Jenkins, Lazard, and Tonyan, or to help offset the cap overage the team has in 2023. The team has also invested heavily into the defensive line, drafting Slaton, Wyatt, and Ford in the last two seasons and signing Reed and Slayton in free agency. While the quality and depth of the D-line would take a hit with Lowry gone, the cap savings may be too much for Gutey to pass up.
- Jake Hanson. He’s been running with the 1s at least part-time in camp and preseason, but he and Newman have struggled a fair bit. One thing working in his favor is he could be the #2 center, but Tom and Jenkins both also have history at center. Rhyan is behind him in his development, but Gutey’s far more likely to cut a 3rd-year 6th-rounder than a rookie 3rd-rounder. Cutting Hanson would make it easier to keep a guy like Caleb Jones or Rasheed Walker on the 53.
- Amari Rodgers. I know some fans feel he doesn’t deserve a spot on the 53, so they wouldn’t regard this as a surprise, but Gutey invested a 3rd-round pick in him last season and he’s been their primary punt returner this preseason. I almost chose Winfree over Rodgers here as a “Kumerow Dos” situation after QB1 has talked him up so much, but Winfree hasn’t clearly won the spot over Rodgers, and Toure is pushing for it as well, so other than QB1’s endorsement, I don’t see it as a huge shock if Winfree is cut.
I didn’t choose Crosby because he’s still on PUP and I’m not sure players on PUP can be cut or traded, but the $3.4M cap savings might be tempting for Gutey, especially with Crosby’s struggles last year. I didn’t choose Lewis despite the potential cap savings, because of the state of the TE room. Cobb didn’t make my list because he’d have a bigger cap hit if cut/traded than on the team, so the only scenario in which he would’ve been gone is if a bunch of the young guys were too good to risk losing, which didn’t happen. For what he could potentially provide, Watkins’ contract is really cheap, so I don’t see him being cut. Some might have Love on their list, but I don’t think a team would offer enough for Gutey to part with him, especially with his progress and the uncertainty of how long QB1 will play, unless a team offered enough for Gutey to say, “Golly!” or “Shazam!”
